Library / macro

Macro & fundamentals

Macro drivers that contextualise FX, metals, indices and commodities.

• CPI (Consumer Price Index)A monthly basket of consumer goods and services that measures inflation. Headline and core CPI are the most-watched releases in macro trading.
• Return on Equity (ROE)A financial metric measuring a company's profitability by revealing how much net income is generated as a percentage of shareholders' equity.
• FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)The Fed body that sets US monetary policy. Eight scheduled meetings per year decide the federal funds rate; the chair’s press conference shapes weeks of market action.
• What Is Fundamental Analysis?Valuation of securities using financial statements, industry position, and macro context — contrast with price-only technical work.
• How Macro Data Moves Equity MarketsGrowth, inflation, policy, and risk-premium shocks rerate earnings expectations and discount rates simultaneously.
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) & Global MarketsUS jobs report headline, revisions, and wage data — a high-volatility release for USD, yields, and risk.
• Reading Fed & ECB Policy SignalsStatements, dots, SEP, minutes, and Q&A — separate **signal** from **noise** in central-bank communications.
• Inflation (CPI/PPI) vs Interest Rates — Historical LinkagesCentral banks lean against sustained inflation with tighter policy; the **Phillips-curve** slope and anchoring vary by decade.
• How to Run Sector AnalysisMap sectors through cycle phase, rate sensitivity, margin structure, and capital intensity — then pick leaders vs laggards.
• Commodity Supply & Demand: Oil & GoldOil balances hinge on OPEC+, shale dynamics, and inventories; gold anchors on real rates, USD, and risk premia.
• Dividend Investing: Analysing Income StocksPayout ratio, dividend coverage, free-cash-flow durability, and sector cyclicality decide sustainability — not yield alone.
• Growth vs Value: When Each ShinesGrowth pays for distant earnings; value discounts near cash flows — leadership rotates with rates and risk appetite.
• PMI as a Growth & Orders Lead IndicatorSurvey diffusion indices (>50 expansion) for manufacturing/services — often lead industrial production and earnings revisions.
• Yield Curve Inversions & Recession SignalsLong rates below short rates (inversion) preceded many recessions — lead time varies; term premium and QE distort comparisons.
• Geopolitical Risk & Safe-Haven FlowsFlight-to-quality moves favour USD, JPY, CHF, gold, and Treasuries — intensity depends on energy linkage and risk appetite baseline.
• Intrinsic Value Methods (DCF, Comps, Preflight Checks)DCF, trading multiples, and sum-of-the-parts — triangulate ranges instead of a single “true” price.
• FX Fundamentals: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)Long-run anchor that currencies converge toward equalising baskets — deviations can persist years with rates and risk premia.
• Economic Calendar Playbook for Active TradersKnow release tiers, consensus fields, revision risk, and market-implied vs realised moves — schedule risk budget around red events.
• CDS Spread Signals Bridging Credit Stress to Equity Selection HeuristicsStructural vs reduced-form intuition, equity–credit decomposition caveats and latency hierarchy of information.
• Leverage Rules (SPK / FCA-Like Styles) × Algorithmic Position ManagementDynamic margin clamps, liquidation proximity risk, NEWS halts affecting EAs — compliance as code invariant.
• Repo Plumbing & CB Liquidity Operations — Transmission to AssetsSecured overnight rates, scarcity episodes vs QT, signalling channel into cross-asset risk appetite.
• Eurodollar / Short-Term Rate Futures Curve — Interpretation LayersEmbedded path vs term-premia decomposition difficulty, dovish/hawkish re-pricing velocities & caveats.
• VIX Futures Term Structure — Reading Contango, Backwardation & Event PremiumRoll yields, convexity quirks of vol-of-vol proxies & why naive carry strategies blow up clustered events.

Educational glossary content only — not investment advice.