What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?

AI summary

<p>The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.</p><p>In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.</p><p>CPI Y/Y</p><ul><li>3.9% (9%)</li><li>3.8% (23%)</li><li>3.7% (54%) - consensus</li><li>3.6% (12%)</li><li>3.3% (2%)</li></ul><p>CPI M/M</p><ul><li>0.9% (2%)</li><li>0.8% (5%)</li><li>0.7% (23%)</li><li>0.6% (53%) - consensus</li><li>0.5% (16%)</li><li>0.4% (3%)</li></ul><p>Core CPI Y/Y</p><ul><li>2.9% (5%)</li><li>2.8% (23%)</li><li>2.7% (60%) - consensus</li><li>2.6% (12%)</li></ul><p>Core CPI M/M</p><ul><li>0.5% (3%)</li><li>0.4% (40%)</li><li>0.3% (48%) - consensus</li><li>0.2% (9%)</li></ul><p>Elevated energy prices have pushed headline inflation back above the 3.0% mark. Inflation was elevated before the war started though and this latest shock just added more upside risk. I don't think today's data is going to change much for the market unless we get significant deviations from the expected numbers.</p><p>For context, the annual Core PCE rate (which is what the Fed targets) has been sticky near the 3.0% level since 2024 and recently rose to the highest level since December