Japan real wages rise for sixth straight month, supporting BoJ rate hike (eventually) case

AI summary

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Six consecutive months of real wage growth strengthens the argument for the Bank of Japan to continue normalising policy, particularly with base salary growth accelerating rather than the gain being driven mainly by volatile bonus payments. The pickup in regular pay to its fastest rate in several months suggests underlying wage momentum is broadening beyond one-off special payments, a distinction the central bank has previously flagged as important for assessing whether inflation is becoming more demand-driven. Cash earnings coming in in line with expectations, after an upward revision to the prior month, removes a source of near-term surprise but keeps the overall wage trajectory pointing the same direction as recent prints. Yen and JGB yield reaction is likely to hinge on how this data is read alongside the government's own forecast for continued real wage growth through fiscal 2027, which implies policymakers see the current trend as durable rather than temporary.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-waffling-on-about-the-yen-and-boj" rel="follow" target="_blank">US Treasury Secretary Bessent waffling on about the yen and BoJ</a></li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-wor