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Missing Data in Financial Time Series — Imputation Without Lookahead

MCAR/MAR/MNAR taxonomy, forward-only fills, Kalman-style smoothers vs naive ffill dangers in backtests.

Authored by·Editorially reviewed
Onur Erkan Yıldız
Founder, Financial Engineer · CMB-licensed

Taxonomy

MCAR (missing completely at random), MAR (conditional on observed), MNAR (informative missing) — each imputation policy differs.

Causal imputation

Never use future rows to fill past holes in research features — classic subtle leakage.

Methods

Piecewise linear bridge, EMGARCH state-space, Kalman filtering when model identified; simplest last observation carried forward may destroy variance structure — document side effects.

Finvestopia

Transparency on data cleaning is part of trustworthy quant storytelling.

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Educational content authored by our team — informational only, not investment advice.